The 18-Month Profit-Taking Cascade
Historically, Bitcoin market cycles are heavily influenced by the behavior of long-term holders and their realized profits. When a massive profit-taking cascade begins, it takes a significant amount of time for the market to absorb the sell pressure. Ki Young Ju points out that this process typically spans about a year and a half.
“Once profit-taking cascades, Bitcoin investors’ PnL typically falls for about 18 months. Since the trend turned in Oct 2025, the bear market could last until early 2027.”
This 18-month cycle relies on the relationship between realized and unrealized profits. Currently, many investors are still sitting on paper gains, which they continue to cash out gradually. This continuous distribution keeps a lid on the BTC price, preventing any sustainable upward momentum until these unrealized profits are fully reset.
Key Cycle Metrics
- Peak Trend Turn: October 2025
- Projected Bear Market End: Early 2027
- Maximum Drawdown (K33 Estimate): 52% from the peak of $126,272
Conflicting On-Chain Signals
While the 18-month timeline paints a bleak picture for the medium term, other indicators within CryptoQuant’s own suite suggest a more nuanced reality. On May 12, the firm’s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator flipped green for the first time since March 2023. Historically, this shift has signaled the start of more constructive market conditions, muddying the waters for an extended bearish outlook.
Additionally, other market observers believe the worst of the decline is already behind us. Analysts at research firm K33 argue that the drop to approximately $60,000 in February represented the cycle’s absolute bottom. This represents a 52% decline from the all-time high of $126,272 recorded on October 6, 2025.
What to Watch Next
For traders looking for a definitive sign of a trend reversal, the key lies in the relationship between realized and unrealized profits. The moment unrealized profits begin to climb while realized profit-taking fades, the 18-month countdown will likely come to an end, paving the way for the next major bull run.
FAQ
When did the current Bitcoin bear market start?
According to CryptoQuant’s analysis, the macro downtrend began in October 2025 following a peak in investor profit-taking.
Why could the bear market last until 2027?
Historical data shows that once a profit-taking cascade begins, it takes roughly 18 months for investor profit-and-loss (PnL) metrics to bottom out and reset.
Are there any bullish indicators?
Yes. CryptoQuant’s Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator recently turned green, and some research firms, like K33, believe the bottom was already reached at around $60,000.
