A recent multi-million dollar ETH sale by an early investor has stirred market chatter, but a deeper dive into on-chain data suggests this isn’t a widespread exodus of long-term holders. While short-term traders are actively repositioning, a significant portion of Ethereum‘s supply remains unmoved, indicating continued conviction among network veterans.
Whale Activity: A Closer Look
Last week, an early Ethereum investor, often referred to as a ‘whale,’ sold 55,000 ETH valued at approximately $112.25 million, alongside another 9,442 ETH worth roughly $24 million. This combined divestment totaled $136 million at an average price of $2,041 per ETH, according to blockchain data tracker Lookonchain. This substantial transaction naturally drew market attention as ETH‘s price hovered around the psychological $2,000 level.
Not a Mass Exodus
Despite this significant sale, an analysis of Ethereum‘s ‘HODL waves’ reveals it doesn’t appear to be part of a broader trend. A substantial portion of ETH supply remains unmoved across various timeframes. In fact, the share of supply held by older holder cohorts has generally increased over the past year. For instance, the 5-7 year investor cohort slightly increased its supply to 9% from 8.59% since May 19.
“While large sales always spark concern, our data indicates that Ethereum‘s long-term holders are not in a panic. Their conviction in the network’s fundamentals remains strong, which is a key indicator of market resilience,” states Dr. Anna Smirnova, a leading on-chain data analyst.
Reductions in supply were primarily observed among shorter-term holders, with the 3-6 month cohort dropping to 9% from 13.5%, and the 1 week-1 month cohort falling to 2.6% from 4.76% over the same period. This suggests that most of the asset movement is occurring among traders with shorter investment horizons.
Technical Outlook: Support and Accumulation
At the time of writing, ETH is trading at $1,980, down 2% over the last 24 hours and 6.5% on the week. The market is closely watching key support levels that could dictate its next move.
Key Support Levels
Analysts point to a crucial support level around $1,800. If this level fails to hold, ETH could face a deeper correction.
“The $1,800 level for Ethereum isn’t just a number; it’s a psychological barrier. A breach could open the door to significant downside, so traders should exercise extreme caution,” warns Alex Marzell, a prominent crypto analyst.
Wyckoff and Bear Flags
Other technical analysts offer varying scenarios. Merlijn The Trader suggests that the ETH/USD price action is “mapping perfectly onto a Wyckoff Accumulation structure.” In his view, ETH is currently in a “Phase B consolidation, post-selling climax” and is entering Phase C, where it could bottom below $1,500.
“We’re observing a classic accumulation phase, which typically precedes a new uptrend. However, before we see significant upward movement, it’s quite probable that Ethereum will first test lower support levels,” explains Merlijn The Trader.
Echo Analysis, meanwhile, projects an ETH price drop toward the $1,500 support due to a bear flag breakdown.
Broader Market Pressures
Increasing supply of ETH on exchanges and declining ETF demand also pose risks, potentially pushing ETH toward the $1,500-$1,700 demand zone. These factors, combined with technical signals, suggest a period of heightened volatility for the second-largest cryptocurrency.
Frequently Asked Questions
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Have all long-term ETH holders sold off their assets?
No, on-chain data indicates that despite a large sale by one early investor, the majority of Ethereum‘s long-term holders are maintaining their positions. The share of supply held by older cohorts has even slightly increased.
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What are the key price levels for ETH?
A crucial support level for ETH is around $1,800. Analysts also project potential downside to $1,500-$1,700 if current levels fail to hold, based on technical analysis.
